9 thoughts on “Horse Racing Handicapping What Is Morning Line

  1. The bigger tracks tend to have a dedicated handicapper and therefore a better morning line. Some of the smaller tracks have poor morning line. Small tracks do tend to get more shippers and horrible form and unknown trainers which make it hard to evaluate as well.

  2. Morning-line odds is supposed to be an opinion as to what the public sentiment will be for a horse in a race betting wise at post time. For a Math Nerd like me any variation between Morning-line Odds, and the Post Time odds is explained by a term called R2 value. Morning-line odds and post-time odds are converted to their equivalent probabilities. In simple terms, and for my benefit a horse becomes a losing betting proposition if odds dip below a certain point. The Math Nerd uses datasets complied in the last two years from over 30 tracks. Simpler to just count cards playing Black Jack.

  3. Don’t use ML, it should be outlawed! for robbing us of our true value by putting horses way under their form value. It’s a way of paying the line maker to cheat us. Horses that have zero chance are at times peg no higher than 50/1 that in Europe would be 99/1 and actual win odds could be $300.

  4. Couldn’t agree with you more, contrary to the saying, it has nothing Imo to do with how the public is going to bet, like you suggest the ml odds are fix like any bookie to manipulate the betting to suit how much money the race track wants to pay us

  5. good info would like to see FIXED odds in horseracing eg. 2 horses @ 6-1 the one i like goes off @ 7-2 the other i don't like goes off @ 10-1.ialways check ml. to find value some lines @ some tracks are way off to posttime odds but tracks @ newyork are the best DAVID A. ml is accurate as it gets thxs again

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