15 thoughts on “VALUE BETTING: Knowing When The Odds Are On Your Side!

  1. Here is a simple tactic I often employ. If, after analysing a race, I conclude that only four horses in a 10 horse field have a chance of winning, but I cannot split them on their chances, then anything over 3-1 is good value; anything less poor value. By the same token, if I favour one runner in a race, but assess there to be only two dangers, then anything over 2-1 is value. Two other possible outcomes to my one. On the other hand if I´m looking at a big handicap and my fancy is 6-1, but I estimate at least 12 possible dangers, then that would represent poor value, so I would avoid a bet.

  2. This may seem like a ridiculous question but please bare with me as I'm new to value betting, matched betting etc.

    I have seen that there's software out there such as each way sniper which indicate when a horse is priced higher at the bookmaker but lower at the exchange, which would indicate that this house has been over priced and is actually more likely to win/place that the odds indicated.
    I know that over time if you get too many winners the bookmaker will likely restrict your accounts by lowering stakes or blocking you all together.

    My question is, is there any benefit to selecting these horses and instead putting the bet in at the exchange if the odds weren't too far away? Does this indicate this is still a good bet to take on or is the only benefit gained by putting it on through the bookmaker at the higher price.

    I'm just wondering if this is a strategy to still spot a good bet?

    I hope that makes sense. Thank you

  3. Thanks for the video. quick two questions from me

    1. Are any sports more profitable than others (and also less likely to get you restricted)?

    2. Is there anything that can be done to keep your accounts going for longer without getting restricted?

  4. Yes but, don't we have to set a minimal percentage ?

    I mean if the book says 20% chance of winning and i'm thinking like 30%. There's a chance that in a long run, i will lose all my bets.

    But if i'm setting my limit to 50% minimal (like book thinking 35% but i'm thinking 50) it would be better.

    Sorry for my english.

  5. I dont uderstand ur point at all ,value bet u mean the perfect odds to bet vs probability of the game or the decimal odd calculated range over time contolled by bookmaker

  6. I used your percentages on the horses chances of winning a race against the betfair odds at the time, if the odds were way above the percentage I would back if way below I laid , this was just using the top 3 in the betting, at one point I was 6 points up , after 20 races or so I was back to break even, I think there is something in it and you probably have a long term edge , any thoughts?

  7. Grew up in a betting family father bookmarked, brother is a pro punter ( successful pro punter I should add). Grew up around it even allowed to bet as as a ten year old because we were dads kids as long as the stewards were not around
    Like I say was bought up with it but never INTERESTED in it at least like my family. Anyway I did not understand value until I was older despite it being talked about so often. I would always argue who cares what odds it is as long as you BELIEVE it’s going to win. In the end you are betting on your belief. It hit me when I was older like I say not a superficial understanding but the actual concept and meaning.

  8. When people talk about the percentage chance of a horse winning? How do you work out that percentage chance? I understand once you have the percentage working out what the odds should be etc. But how do you get a figure for the percentage chance?

  9. Value as you say is the only way to make money at sports betting. My experience is that you cannot add value by looking at form. Check out the Adrian Massey site and you will see what I mean. I ran an industrial scale value betting operation back in 2016-17 for 14 months and made over 6 figures, just backing blind using a scanner and comparing the Betfair lay odds to spot value. Of course I got gubbed off the planet and moved on and now use the same programs for a tipping service. Bookies have a fatally flawed system and if you can spot value and get bets on at the value price you cannot lose, the ROI is 19% rock solid. My scanner simply reverses the book and gives you a big edge in real time. drop me a line if you want to swap some ideas.

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