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# What is Positive EV Sports Betting? (Better than Arbitrage!) (using OddsJam)

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excadz
December 11, 2022
1 min read

Hey guys! In today’s video, I explain what is Plus EV / Positive EV sports betting (sportsbetting) and in the end got banned. I utilise …

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Please can I get your number

I'm a day trader, and I was interested in learning about how the casinos make money. This explanation of EV makes so much sense and I've used the calculation to determine if my trading edge will be profitable in the long term or not with my back testing data (which it is cuz it had good positive EV) . Thank you!

I wonder how much tax you have to pay when you win 8000 dollars?

Where would you get the values for the probability of each outcome?

if you haven't heard of awakenbeerus yet, I don't know what you're waiting for, open your Instagram and get his predictions right away

In other words u need to bet a large sum of money to maximize odds?

1xbet crash game winning trick? Plz tell me. I'm from India.

I reckon it’s better to follow the injury lists of NBA teams, find an underdog who is short priced and place X on it and then the next morning when the other team is now the underdog, place the same amount on them.

Well, I also came up with a site where you could wager on your favorite players in any league! Six Sigma, where you can wager on the world's greatest athletic events such as the English Premier League, UEFA Champions League, Indian Premier League, and the 2022 World Cup, has launched their testnet in which you may participate and get incenvised! You could also participate in the Gleam Campaign for a chance to win a PlayStation 5.

Dont waste your time search for awakenbeerus his predictions are not of this world

You will just get you accounts banned before you make any kind of decent money. It’s not worth your time. I’ve done it myself.

Hello friends!I am looking for guys who want to make money on betting in bookmakers, they have cut the lienough to earn, write in the telegram,link on the channelmits,and the usual amounts are not

good info

Hi. I love probability and statistics. I have a question regarding this +EV betting.

If you only bet on high return. Does that mean that I don't need to look for Arbitrage? If no, why?

Yes but +EV has the risk pertaining to the distance between your estimated and the true distribution of the outcome.

man you said one plus ev bettor better then arbitrage bettor because you making more money ,but you just lied because on ev you say bet 3$ on arbitrage bettor 1$ so that make sense why its less money

We have betting exchanges and people still betting on bookmakers that is so sad 😞

6th time watching this video😅was clueless at first, now I've made around 6k and counting with plus EV in a month

So no matter what the odds are, you just place your bet on the bigger odd (it can be 3 or 5 or 6) and the probability that they go in will be 450 of 1000? Sorry for my english im not sure I understood the video right

Follow my channel for football betting predictions every day

this is BS coz bookies calculate odds so that you cant make a positive EV. the odds dont exist.

Guys, give awakenbeerus 40$ trust me. I know that you are skeptical and that you are afraid of sending money to strangers, but this guy is insane, he guesses every soccer game score correctly. btw i won 800$ yesterday thanks to him

It is unfair to use the same bet amount in an EV bet vs a risk free ARB. You can put up as much as you like in an ARB bet b/c there is no risk in an EV if you put up your bankroll you will be eaten alive by variance. It is very obvious a $3 Arb bet is lower than $3 EV bet. But if $3 is your whole bankroll to make it apples to apple you should be betting 1% of $3 or 3 cents… then see who has the higher EV.

So what's the Aussie version of oddsjam?

This statistical analysis ignores variances and streaks A better method of analysis would be using a random walk of expected wins; this would account for, say, sometimes when you a flip a coin, it's heads 8 times in a row.

zio grazie sono rico ora

How does Oddsjam know if a quote is wrong? And what if the bookie tells you that the quote was wrong and gives you back only the bet money without the profit?

Don't forget sports is not like a coin toss. The rule of numbers may stand under different influences. A bad team is a bad team an can have a good game one day but it isn't anything near compared to a real 50/50 coin toss. Have that in mind when betting.

"Speculation" will always yield more than "arbitrage" but the key difference is you cannot fully compound via positive EV or any sort of betting/trading with probabilities as there's always risk, no matter how small… hence you cannot go all in and efficiently compound all your capital. Unlike risk free arbitrage

Thanks for nothing

What about the Tax?

but outcomes of sports events dont have predetermined probabilities.. so how can EV be calculated?

Arbitrage has less variance and no mistakes

+EV sports bet are often -EV, the person betting just doesn't know it

fake as fuck

@1:07 missing a ")" on the final line.

Hey, have you use arbitrage or ev betting in the US stonk market? If yes, what is your success or failure rate in trading the stonk market?

I guess now even thinks they can cap games. The industry is so tainted now lol.

Very interesting stuff. Very. But. If a guy looks like a crook, talks like a crook and even smiles like a crook then there is 100% probability that he IS a crook 😄

yes

This video IS a scam. EV requires you to have a better estimate of reality than bookies. Which is in general wrong. In the specific instance the long term average points scored is used, which is NOT the best predictor of the game real points difference.

but how do you estimate probabilities of the events?

How to find out probability of a certain team winning?

but what if you don't like the team you are betting on?

With arbitrage being 100% win or at least 0% loss isn't it much easier to scale. if you took the same example of 1000 flips, but the arbitrage bettor went all-in every time (£3 first flip wins .80. £3.80 2nd flip wins £1 £4.80 3rd flip and so on) he would be way more profitable. EV can't do this as 50% of the time you get reset to zero

Doesn't calculating the expected value of a bet require knowing the ACTUAL chances of one outcome occurring vs another? At which point betting becomes trivial? The whole point of betting is that we don't know which outcome is going to occurr; If every event was always coin toss then the only people making money are bookies and lucky bastards.

I live in Australia, can I sign up for the amercain betting company's?

what I would like to know is what what happens when you lose all EV+ bets. If my math are correctly with fee you only need to win 52.38% of the best to win to break even. But if you are unlucky and just lose over and over wouldnt it take month to make up the loses? Or am i completly wrong

Do you ever bet NFL?