48 thoughts on “What is Positive EV Sports Betting? (Better than Arbitrage!) (using OddsJam)

  1. I'm a day trader, and I was interested in learning about how the casinos make money. This explanation of EV makes so much sense and I've used the calculation to determine if my trading edge will be profitable in the long term or not with my back testing data (which it is cuz it had good positive EV) . Thank you!

  2. I reckon it’s better to follow the injury lists of NBA teams, find an underdog who is short priced and place X on it and then the next morning when the other team is now the underdog, place the same amount on them.

  3. Well, I also came up with a site where you could wager on your favorite players in any league! Six Sigma, where you can wager on the world's greatest athletic events such as the English Premier League, UEFA Champions League, Indian Premier League, and the 2022 World Cup, has launched their testnet in which you may participate and get incenvised! You could also participate in the Gleam Campaign for a chance to win a PlayStation 5.

  4. Hi. I love probability and statistics. I have a question regarding this +EV betting.
    If you only bet on high return. Does that mean that I don't need to look for Arbitrage? If no, why?

  5. man you said one plus ev bettor better then arbitrage bettor because you making more money ,but you just lied because on ev you say bet 3$ on arbitrage bettor 1$ so that make sense why its less money

  6. So no matter what the odds are, you just place your bet on the bigger odd (it can be 3 or 5 or 6) and the probability that they go in will be 450 of 1000? Sorry for my english im not sure I understood the video right

  7. Guys, give awakenbeerus 40$ trust me. I know that you are skeptical and that you are afraid of sending money to strangers, but this guy is insane, he guesses every soccer game score correctly. btw i won 800$ yesterday thanks to him

  8. It is unfair to use the same bet amount in an EV bet vs a risk free ARB. You can put up as much as you like in an ARB bet b/c there is no risk in an EV if you put up your bankroll you will be eaten alive by variance. It is very obvious a $3 Arb bet is lower than $3 EV bet. But if $3 is your whole bankroll to make it apples to apple you should be betting 1% of $3 or 3 cents… then see who has the higher EV.

  9. This statistical analysis ignores variances and streaks A better method of analysis would be using a random walk of expected wins; this would account for, say, sometimes when you a flip a coin, it's heads 8 times in a row.

  10. Don't forget sports is not like a coin toss. The rule of numbers may stand under different influences. A bad team is a bad team an can have a good game one day but it isn't anything near compared to a real 50/50 coin toss. Have that in mind when betting.

  11. "Speculation" will always yield more than "arbitrage" but the key difference is you cannot fully compound via positive EV or any sort of betting/trading with probabilities as there's always risk, no matter how small… hence you cannot go all in and efficiently compound all your capital. Unlike risk free arbitrage

  12. This video IS a scam. EV requires you to have a better estimate of reality than bookies. Which is in general wrong. In the specific instance the long term average points scored is used, which is NOT the best predictor of the game real points difference.

  13. With arbitrage being 100% win or at least 0% loss isn't it much easier to scale. if you took the same example of 1000 flips, but the arbitrage bettor went all-in every time (£3 first flip wins .80. £3.80 2nd flip wins £1 £4.80 3rd flip and so on) he would be way more profitable. EV can't do this as 50% of the time you get reset to zero

  14. Doesn't calculating the expected value of a bet require knowing the ACTUAL chances of one outcome occurring vs another? At which point betting becomes trivial? The whole point of betting is that we don't know which outcome is going to occurr; If every event was always coin toss then the only people making money are bookies and lucky bastards.

  15. what I would like to know is what what happens when you lose all EV+ bets. If my math are correctly with fee you only need to win 52.38% of the best to win to break even. But if you are unlucky and just lose over and over wouldnt it take month to make up the loses? Or am i completly wrong

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